It hasrecently put together a revised collection of items in a new catalog, which it is preparing to roll out ina mailing. In an attempt to grow its customer base, NoVA Catalog has recently joined aconsortium of catalog firms that specialize in computer and software products. The consortiumoffers members the opportunity to mail catalogs to names drawn from a pooled list of customers.Members supply their own customer lists to the pool, and can withdraw an equal number of nameseach quarter. Members are allowed to do predictive modeling on the records in the pool so they cando a better job of selecting names from the pool. NoVA Catalog is entitled to draw 200,000 names for amailing from a pool containing over 5,000,000 names.NoVA would obviously like to select the names that have the best chance of performing well, so itconducts a test—it draws 2,000 names from the pool and does a test mailing of the new catalog tothem. The data from this test mailing are in the NoVA Catalog worksheet. Along with some basicinformation about each individual (e.g., gender), the dataset contains information on the outcome ofthe mailing, i.e., whether the individual responded to the mailing, and if they did, how much theyspent. (Note that responding to the mailer implies making a purchase.)The descriptions of all the variables in the dataset are below:
Variable NameDescription CodeDescriptionSequence Sequence number of the record.SourceCodeIt is an indicator used by the consortium to identify where thename was drawn from. That is, each code represents the source ofthe record. Detailed description of the sources is not disclosed bythe consortium to the participating companies, however, somesources may contain more potential customers.US_Address Is the address of the customer a US address? 1: yes 0: noFrequency Number of transactions in last year.WebOrder Did the person place at least one order via web in the past?Male Is the person Male? 1: yes 0: noFemale Is the person Female? 1: yes 0: noRes_Address Is the address of the customer a residential address? 1: yes 0: noResponded Did the person respond to the test mail? 1: yes 0: noSpending Indicates the amount (in US Dollars) that someone responding tothe test mailing spent.Answer the following questions using the NoVA Catalog dataset.1. What percentage of people who received the test mailings made a purchase? (2)2. Of the customers who responded, what was the average purchase amount? (3)3. As indicated in the table above, some sources (captured by the SourceCode attribute) may containmore potential customers. Which are the top three sources of responders, i.e., which three sourcesgenerated the maximum number of customers? (5)4. Using the attributes that could be predictors, build a d e c i s i o n t r e e model i nR a p i d M i n e r that NoVA Catalog can use in the future to predict whether a catalog recipientwill respond. What is the dependent variable you used for the model? What are the independentvariables you used? (30)a. Based on your model, what is the best predictor of response (i.e., whether an individualwill make a purchase)? (4)b. Evaluate the predictive accuracy of the model using appropriate metrics. (6)Note:• You must clearly answer all the questions and provide RapidMiner screen prints tosupport your answer for Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4a, and Q4b. You will only receive half thepoints without screen prints even if your answer is correct.• You need to submit the RMP file for Q4 only. No need to submit RMP files for Q1, Q2,Q3.3Submission GuidelinesYour submission is to be made via Blackboard. The responses to all questions should besubmitted in a Word or Acrobat file. For each question, make sure you clearly answer thequestion that was asked.In addition to the response file, please submit the RapidMiner process file as evidence of yourmodel. That is, you need to submit the .rmp file only for Question 4.Make sure you attach all the necessary files before submitting the Exam.File Naming GuidelinesThe response file should be named as lastname.x, where lastname represents your last name, andx the file extension. For example, if Elaine Marie Benes submits her HW in pdf, then the fileshould be named Benes.pdf.Further, your full name must appear at the top of the response document (Word or pdf) itself. Donot compress any file.
